The warehouse market appears stable. SQM Advisory warns: this could be a trap

Although official statistics still show a relatively high level of available warehouse space, the actual situation on the market is far more strained than the reports suggest. According to experts at SQM Advisory, the warehouse market is set to face a sharp decline in space availability over the coming quarters. A return of demand coupled with limited new supply could quickly shift the balance of power in the market.

The last two years in the warehouse market have been characterized by caution. Tenants have focused on cost optimization and contract renegotiations, whilst developers have scaled back new projects without secured lease agreements. As a result, the market has entered a period of apparent equilibrium, where space availability remains relatively high and companies can, at least in theory, still count on favorable negotiating terms.

– „The biggest mistake today would be to assume that the official vacancy rate guarantees a comfortable situation in the coming years. There are many indications that the market will very quickly shift from a surplus of available space to a battle for the best locations. We are seeing a rise in demand, which is being driven by activity from international tenants, including those from Asia”, says Tomasz Arent, Partner at SQM Advisory.

According to experts at SQM Advisory, the current market picture may not reflect the true scale of the changes taking place on the demand side. The largest units available in attractive locations are gradually being snapped up by tenants.

– „There are many indications that the current data reflects the market’s past rather than its future. We are seeing increasing activity from logistics and e-commerce firms, which are snapping up the largest available units. The current level of officially available space may give tenants a sense of security, but the market is not prepared for the moment when demand rises sharply again. For tenants, this means the need to plan relocations and renegotiate leases in advance, as well as the risk of rising rents,” says Tomasz Arent.

At the same time, new supply remains limited. Developers are taking a cautious approach to launching speculative projects, and financial institutions are analyzing the risks of new investments much more thoroughly than they did just a few years ago.

According to data from the Polish Chamber of Commercial Real Estate (PINK), the stock of modern warehouse space in Poland currently exceeds 37 million square meters, whilst the vacancy rate remains at around 7 per cent. However, these figures merely provide a backdrop to the processes taking place in the market. It is not the sheer scale of available space that is becoming increasingly important, but its location, quality and actual availability to new tenants. As experts from SQM Advisory point out, there are currently virtually no attractive large spaces on the market where discussions with potential tenants are not already underway.

According to PINK, as at the end of March 2026, 1.44 million square meters of space was under construction across Poland. Among the regions, the largest share of space under construction was recorded in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship (37 per cent of the space under construction), the Śląskie Voivodeship (15 per cent) and the Łódzkie Voivodeship (11 per cent). Meanwhile, the lowest vacancy rates were recorded in the Podlaskie Province (0.0 per cent), the Opole Province (1.1 per cent) and the West Pomeranian Province (1.4 per cent).

– „If several major tenant groups start to step up their activity in selected regions at the same time, the availability of space could decline much more rapidly than most market participants currently anticipate”, – concludes Tomasz Arent.

As SQM Advisory points out, the dwindling availability of space and the limited number of new developments are increasing the risk of a sharp rise in effective rents as early as 2026.

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SQM Advisory is a consultancy firm operating in the industrial and logistics property sector. It supports tenants, investors and owners in making key decisions relating to the letting, purchase and development of property. The SQM Advisory team comprises partners and staff with many years of market experience on both sides of the market – acting as advisors as well as representing tenants, developers and investors.
To date, the SQM Advisory team has been involved in transactions resulting in the letting of over 1 million square meters of space. This experience translates into recommendations based on data, market knowledge and a practical understanding of the processes of letting, renegotiation, expansion, consolidation and relocation.